Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.682606 2.225757 2.963276 4.064894 5.717313 8.188137e+00 1.233615e+01
2025-01-05 1.147177 1.727185 2.660939 4.368094 7.647987 1.427014e+01 3.064816e+01
2025-01-12 0.768383 1.271775 2.193621 4.178354 8.915496 2.171804e+01 7.067268e+01
2025-01-19 0.525455 0.936011 1.769223 3.827908 9.806348 3.142765e+01 1.696993e+02
2025-01-26 0.400026 0.765235 1.586196 3.928858 12.409013 5.663290e+01 6.927776e+02
2025-02-02 0.328978 0.675888 1.542123 4.431740 17.987659 1.343603e+02 8.732620e+03
2025-02-09 0.280373 0.616744 1.548074 5.202635 28.260701 4.249183e+02 1.614362e+07
2025-02-16 0.231430 0.536762 1.454464 5.580104 39.792067 1.375803e+03 NaN
2025-02-23 0.185709 0.447255 1.281573 5.438684 48.603014 4.106188e+03 NaN
2025-03-02 0.148701 0.368472 1.102289 5.069020 54.921613 1.256249e+04 NaN
2025-03-09 0.128748 0.331928 1.055570 5.462645 80.460634 2.225914e+05 NaN
2025-03-16 0.111926 0.298772 1.003700 5.799698 117.227257 1.955091e+09 NaN
2025-03-23 0.098440 0.273117 0.976445 6.428339 197.598111 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.086683 0.248944 0.942129 7.024775 340.732468 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.073417 0.214915 0.839836 6.732892 439.333745 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.061725 0.182936 0.729973 6.141447 495.572065 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054651 0.165744 0.687970 6.353248 804.014637 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050366 0.157632 0.691158 7.300907 1989.358818 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047207 0.152835 0.711718 8.776561 7455.745942 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043064 0.142625 0.692045 9.528613 23846.488908 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038288 0.128279 0.635754 9.279189 47662.395304 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.033761 0.113801 0.570311 8.586975 68742.617126 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.031297 0.107612 0.559578 9.361457 561062.540199 NaN NaN